Among a trove of US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports released Jan. 12 was an estimated smaller area planted to winter wheat than in 2023. But US producers may be poised to harvest a larger crop in 2024 after a much better moisture situation improved initial crop conditions and generated ideas of a return to trendline yields in the US Plains. Poor export prospects for US wheat could mean a larger all-wheat carryout for the next two seasons.

The USDA in its Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report estimated the area planted to winter wheat for harvest in 2024 at 34,425,000 acres, down 2,274,000 acres, or 6%, from 2023. The year-over-year decline alone might seem steep, but a closer look shows 2023 acreage was a spike. The USDA’s estimate of 34.4 million acres is the second largest since 2016.